FORECASTING THE NEED FOR MEDICAL STAFF BASED ON REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF POPULATION HEALTH FACTORS

Abstract

In the context of the continuing shortage of medical personnel and the growing burden on the healthcare system, the analysis of factors influencing the redistribution of medical resources is becoming especially relevant. The article presents a regression model explaining the variability of the workload per doctor depending on the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of municipalities. Based on federal statistics, healthcare systems and official regional sources, the significance and contribution of such factors as the compatibility rate, income level, population density, bed capacity and the proportion of the elderly population were assessed. The results of the analysis show that these parameters have a statistically significant effect on the distribution of the workload, which can be used for sound personnel planning at the regional level. The model demonstrates a high level of explanatory power (adjusted R² = 0.84) and resistance to multicollinearity. The findings allow us to recommend the use of the model to improve the efficiency of human resource management in healthcare.