THE DYNAMICS AND PROSPECTS OF TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT OF ELECTRIC TRANSPORT UNDER CONDITIONS OF DECARBONIZATION BY 2050

Abstract

The main obstacle to the mass transition to electric transport today is its high price relative to road vehicles with an internal combustion engine. Nevertheless, the roadmap for the decarbonization of the global economy suggests a dramatic increase in the production and sales of electric cars and trucks, as well as electric buses. In line with industrial learning theory, the rapid growth in production of electric vehicles can drive down costs. This paper analyzes the dynamics and prospects for the further development of electric vehicles from the point of view of the development of technology for the production of batteries. The learning rate in the production of batteries is calculated, the prospects for the emergence of new technological solutions on the market, as well as the prospects for the disposal of used electric vehicle batteries, are analyzed.